The first one, because your reasoning is correct to add more space on the left margin and align to the center of the hexagon in the logo. That's probably what you already knew, since this was posted as the first image.
that white diamond shape under the logo should not be too strong, you don't want that shape to attract too much attention away from ...
Looks like a math problem indeed.
Not sure why do you need the horizontal so-called 'rows'. The baseline grid looks correct, but the horizontal lines don't make sense. Those have nothing to do with the baseline grid and the way text will flow into your columns.
Also, not sure you're aware you're dealing with 2 units of measurement, MM for the layout and PT ...
In 1.4.8 master pages items are always behind the ones on the page, so there is no way to get the text on the page to flow around them.
This has been changed in the development branch and in the future you will be able to do it.
The workaround is to modify the text frame to have a non rectangular shape and get the text to flow around the number.
But in ...